This working paper sits at the intersection of two fields neither of us fully inhabits, which is either its most interesting feature or its most alarming one, depending on your perspective. My own research focuses on the history of empire and Islam in Central Asia, and in particular on the Bukharan Emirate during the nineteenth century — the semi-colonial Russian protectorate that is the geographic setting for this paper. My ongoing work on cultures of documentation in Bukhara has given me access to archival materials, in Persian and Russian, that have not previously been examined in connection with the 1889 pandemic. The documents in question describe clusters of illness in the Qarshi region — the center of the karakul sheep trade — beginning as early as 1884–1885, predating the conventionally recognized outbreak by several years.
My partner in crime Jessica is a health economist at who works on vaccines for respiratory viruses. She has done her best to connect the archival findings to the relevant scientific literature, including the ongoing debate about whether the 1889 pandemic was caused by H3N8 influenza or by a coronavirus (HCoV-OC43) spillover event. Neither of us would claim to have settled that question. What we do think is that these primary sources are upstream of where existing seroarchaeological evidence can reach, and that their pattern — including a shift from gastrointestinal and hepatic presentation in early village outbreaks toward respiratory dominance as the illness spread toward Bukhara city, and an epidemiological context closely tied to animal commerce — is at minimum worth putting in front of people who study these diseases professionally.
We are circulating this paper specifically to invite frank criticism: where the argument goes wrong, where it could be strengthened, and whether there are collaborators better positioned than we are to fill the gaps. Neither of our careers depends on any particular reception, which we hope makes us easier to be honest with.
Comments can be directed to: pickettj[at]pitt.edu